According to Klines findings, Asia-Pacific led with 43 percent of global lubricants demand in 2013, followed by the Americas at 32 percent, Europe with 17 percent and Africa and the Middle East with 8 percent.

Regardless of which region or country market youre playing in, there is a movement towards higher performance, quality lubricants, and we expect that to continue in both the developed and in the developing country markets, Morvey said.

Key driving factors include the availability of high performance base stocks – API Group II, Group III and III+ — which has worked its way into the market. This has enabled suppliers to elevate their product portfolio, so they can compete in a product segment where they may have been locked out of in the past, he said. Certainly the availability of high performance base stocks anywhere in world at reasonable prices has supported the move to better quality lubricants.

Another key factor is lubricant users striving to optimize their uptime and reduce maintenance costs, motivating them to demand higher quality products. Regardless of which region or country market youre playing in, there is a movement towards higher performance, quality lubricants, and we expect that to continue in both the developed and in the developing country markets, Morvey said.

Environmental regulatory issues – regardless of where you are in the world – the push by governments to reduce emissions and improve fuel economy, is pushing OEMS whether its transportation equipment or heavy machinery, to build better, more efficient products, he said, creating an appetite for better quality lubricants. In both automotive and industrial applications, the industry is moving towards better quality products, he said, in both developed and developing country markets.

The United States remained the largest lubricant consuming country market in 2013, followed by China, India, Russia and Japan.

Kline expects China to surpass the United States by about 2017-2018 to become the largest lubricant-consuming country market.

Automotive engine oil – including passenger and heavy duty – accounted for 44 percent of lubricants demand, followed by process oils at 14 percent, hydraulic fluids at 9 percent, other automotive lubricants with 9 percent, general industrial oils with 8 percent, industrial engine oil with 7 percent, metalworking fluids at 6 percent and grease with 3 percent.

Passenger car motor oil demand globally is expected to grow slightly from 7 million tons in 2013 to more than 8 million tons by 2023, with 5W and 0W weight motor oil accounting for about 44 percent by 2023.

Kline believes the continuing global migration to lower visgrade PCMO will result in higher penetration of synthetics and semi-synthetics, bringing higher revenues, and conversely longer oil drain intervals and suppressed overall PCMO growth. Key drivers for synthetic demand remain OEM factory fill service recommendations and vehicle owners desires for the longer oil drain intervals. We think there are plenty of opportunities for the entire supply chain to promote synthetics in all regions and country markets, he said.

Kline expects heavy duty motor oil demand to grow from about 9 million tons in 2013 to 10.5 million tons by 2023, with SAE 15W-40 accounting for 50 percent of the market by 2023. He noted that while monogrades are declining, they still account for about a third of global demand. Each year, as equipment is modernized, and better maintenance practices are followed, expect monograde to go away, Morvey said.