From 2000, when global lubricant demand (excluding marine oils) reached 36.4 million tons, to 2013, the world has seen significant regional changes, Gosalia said. The Asia-Pacific regions share of total demand soared from 29 percent to 42 percent, while North America plummeted from 26 percent to 19 percent. Europes share slid from 27 percent to 20 percent.

Over the same 13 years, Shell solidified its spot as the largest lubricant manufacturer by volume, leaving ExxonMobil in second place.

Global lubricant demand tracks GDP growth, said Gosalia, but there is a lag. Global gross domestic product rose 3 percent from 2012 to 2013, while global lubricant demand inched up just 0.9 percent. By region, Fuchs estimates the following lubricant demand growth from 2012 to 2013: North America, 0 percent; Latin America, 1.7 percent; Western Europe, -0.6 percent; Eastern Europe, 0.9 percent; Middle East, 1.5 percent; Africa, 0.9 percent; and Asia-Pacific, 1.4 percent.

Asia and Africa have room for increased demand, noted Gosalia. Worldwide per capital lube consumption is about 5 kg, but regional variations are stark. North America consumed over 18 kg per person in 2013. Per capita consumption in Asia-Pacific was less than 4 kg and only about 2 kg in Africa. Western Europe consumed about 9 kg per person, Eastern Europe and the Middle East each consumed nearly 8 kg per person, and Latin America consumed just over 5 kg per person.

The top 20 lubricant-consuming countries make up 75 percent of global lubricant demand, Gosalia continued. First on that list is China, where demand topped 6 million tons last year, putting it ahead of the United States, where demand was just under 6 million tons.

Number three on the country list is India, which consumed about 1.5 million tons last year, followed by Russia, Japan, Brazil, Germany, Korea, Mexico and Iran.

Looking at lube demand by product, Fuchs found 56 percent of worldwide demand was for automotive lubes last year, and 44 percent for industrial lubes. Again, regional breakdowns varied widely. Automotive demand was 58 percent in North America, 71 percent in Latin America, 44 percent in Western Europe, 57 percent in Eastern Europe, 76 percent in the Middle East, 51 percent in Africa, and 64 percent in Asia-Pacific.

The competitive landscape of the lube industry has changed significantly in recent decades, Gosalia noted. In the mid-1990s, there were about 1,500 independent lubricant manufacturers making at least a thousand tons per year, and some 200 majors. By 2005, the number of independents had shrunk to just 590 and majors making lubes to 130.

Gosalia highlighted significant changes in the roster of top 15 lubricant manufacturers, by volume, from 2000 to 2013:

Source: Fuchs Petrolub

Gosalia highlighted six factors in the competitive landscape that are driving changes. First, majors are retracting from some niches, creating opportunities for independents, for example, Shells and ExxonMobils sale of some downstream assets. Second is new market participants, for example, Cosan in Brazil. Third is majors restructuring, such as Pertamina and Gulf demerging their lubes businesses. Fourth is the globalizing of national oil companies, such as PetroChina and Sinopec. Fifth is vertical diversification, for example Calumets acquisition of Bel-Ray and Lubrizols purchase of Chemtool, putting them solidly in the finished lubricants business. Sixth is the proliferation of private equity in the lubes arena.

With global GDP expected to increase to 3.7 percent in 2014, Gosalia predicted global lubricant demand growth from 2013 to 2014 of about 1 to 1.5 percent.

How can companies thrive in this competitive landscape? Gosalia emphasized the importance of sustainability. Sustainability along the dimensions of economic, ecological and social responsibility will remain a driving force in the lubricants industry to sustain ability in the future, he concluded.