November 20, 2018
Volume 3 Issue 8
Belarus’ Motor Oil Demand Stagnates
Motor oil demand in Belarus reached 32,000 metric tons in 2017, showing signs of stagnation after a peak in demand caused by the influx of imported cars in 2014 and 2015, a market study found. Development of Belarus’ vehicle fleet depends on its political relations with Russia, the report noted.
The study by Moscow-based consultancy RPI found that motor oil consumption in Belarus could grow by a 2.1 percent compound annual rate to 2030 because of the country’s growing passenger and commercial vehicle parc.
“We expect Belarus’ motor oil demand to reach 42,200 tons by 2030, and this is related to the [positive] results in the country’s economy [projected] in the years to come,” Nikita Medvedev, senior analyst at RPI, told Lube Report last week.
The three most popular motor oil brands in Belarus – ExxonMobil’s Mobil and the German Motul and Divinol brands – accounted for more than 35 percent of the motor oil demand in the country. Lukoil is the fourth leading brand in Belarus and held 12 percent of the market, with a focus on commercial vehicles.
Passenger cars consumed 54 percent of Belarus’ 32,000 tons of motor oil demand, followed by light commercial vehicles that consumed 30 percent of the total. Heavy-duty vehicles and buses consumed 15 percent and 1 percent, respectively.
Regionally, the capital Minsk (23.7 percent) and the Minsk region (17.3 percent) held the largest share of Belarussian motor oil demand last year, followed by the Brest region at 14 percent.
“Last year Minsk and the Minsk region consumed 3.9 tons of motor oil per 1,000 inhabitants each, and surprisingly, in per capita motor oil consumption, they were followed by the Grodno region with 3.6 tons of motor oils consumed per 1,000 inhabitants,” Medvedev said.
The Grodno region is the center of Belarus’ chemical, food and agricultural industries.
RPI found that the Grodno and Mogilev regions are leaders in consumption of Gost standard oils, an obsolete specification used in older Russian and Soviet-made cars, machinery and equipment. Combined, the regions used nearly 47 percent of the total demand for Gost motor oils in Belarus. Meanwhile, the Minsk and Brest urban centers together used only 27 percent of these oils in 2017.
Belarus last year consumed only 250 tons of factory fill oils.
“Belarus factory fill volumes are very low because there is no passenger car manufacturing in the country. The only factory fill is for heavy duty truck production by the Maz and Belaz original equipment manufacturers,” Medvedev said.
The country also produces buses at the Neman bus factory in Lida, a city in western Belarus. RPI said the Belarus lube market depends heavily on its largest neighbor, Russia. Both countries share a common economic and custom union.
“We should take into consideration the dependence of the country’s economy on Russian bank credits and energy products access, and the opportunities for re-export of Russian crude oil and petrochemical products to third countries,” Medvedev said, adding that all of these are solely political factors.
“Political relations between Moscow and Minsk very much affect the stability and development of the Belarus economy and, accordingly, the development of the vehicle fleet and lubricant market in the country.”
More information on RPI’s latest Belarus lubricant market study, “Motor Oil Market in Belarus, Current Trends, Forecast by 2030, Analysis of the Key Players and Consumer Preferences,” is available here.