It is pretty much a re-run of last week in the Americas. The trans-Pacific routes from the U.S. Gulf are largely full for the next couple of weeks, and since the cargo receivers are beginning to wrap things up prior to the lunar holidays traders have been switching their attention to ships that can load later in February. Base oils are not really in evidence on this route, but there are plenty of other chemicals that can be shipped. Freight rates are carbon copies of last week.

U.S. Gulf to India-Middle East Gulf is another route that is afflicted by a lack of space, unless an outsider can be persuaded to come on berth, but with no large cargoes of ethylene dichloride present it may be risky for an owner to base it purely on base oil, ethanol and vegetable oil alone.

Transatlantic eastbound does look a little more active than before, with some styrene, acetic acid and ethanol mentioned, the rates being seen for these are mid $50s/t for 5,000 ton lots and low $50s/t for 6,000-8,000 tons of acetic acid. U.S. Gulf-to-Mediterranean is also tight on space, and owners are calculating with numbers of around $100/t for 3,000-4,000 ton parcels of base oils from Houston to Turkey.

In addition to the regular cargoes of caustic, paraxylene and base oils, there is a growing amount of ethanol quoted from U.S. Gulf to east coast South America, which is a trend that is expected to continue until the onset of the Brazilian crushing season. Rates are notionally unchanged, but there is no part-cargo space remaining until the second half of February.

U.S. Gulf-to-Caribbean is fairly quiet this week. A couple of prompt ships are available for destinations such as Mexico, where 3,000-4,000 ton cargoes of base oil will fetch levels between $33 and $38/t.

Europe

The end of every month seems to produce a wave of fresh spot cargo requirements in the North Sea and Baltic, and January is no exception. Contracts are performing well at the same time and many owners report being busy well into February. Rates are flat however, with the typical 3,500 ton parcels of easy chemicals from Rotterdam to North France paying around $65,000.

Ice is reported in parts of the Baltic, such as St. Petersburg and Vyborg, but the sea temperatures in the main base oils ports are still quite high and should remain accessible. All the same, ice restrictions come into force on Feb. 5, which may deter some ship owners and could cause freights to lift.

Southbound into the Mediterranean has been very active, with a long list of cargo requirements noted, including base oils. Freights are mostly stable into regions such as Turkey, where a couple of owners will be scheduled, but to take a parcel to a port that is not on the usual route could provoke some strong freight ideas.

Northbound is stable, but a number of owners are showing interest in getting their vessels out and away from the Mediterranean and may therefore be more willing to work out a deal.

Inter-Mediterranean itself has not been that busy, and with refugees from the Russian river system flooding the market in the east Mediterranean with additional ships, other owners are seeking ways to re-position ships to the west Mediterranean. There may be opportunities to grab a cheaper freight in these kinds of circumstances.

Transatlantic westbound has been busy again with many prompt requirements of benzene and pyrolysis gasoline, as well as base oils, caustic, sulphuric acid, naphtha and urea ammonia nitrate. Owners are more bullish, and it is more common to see levels in the $50s/t for 4,000-5,000 ton parcels from Rotterdam to the U.S. Gulf.

Europe-to-Far East produced plenty of varied requirements over the past week, but the lack of space is holding things back. Aromatics are the primary grades, but base oils are being quoted as well. Rising prices in Asia are acting as a stimulant to base oil traders. One major owner is thinking of putting an extra ship on berth in February which will at least provide a platform for fixing, even if the rates will be higher than the current notional values.

Europe to India-Middle East Gulf remains firm and space tight. Base oils are certainly part of the cargo mix, but freights are firm, and if an agreement is reached on the phosphoric acid prices into India, and it seems to be a step closer, then even more tonnage will be soaked up. Vegetable oils into India and Middle East Gulf continue to provide a more competitive package that palm oils from Asia, and are also sweeping up any stray tonnage.

Asia

Whilst trade on the domestic Asia market has certainly diminished prior to the start of the Chinese New Year, it has not disappeared altogether. Indeed, there are still a reasonable number of prompt requirements. Equally however, there are still quite a lot of ships open, or with part-cargo space that could cheerfully snap up a cargo before things tail off completely.

Some base oil requirements are being shown for prompt, but the majority are for loading later in February, which is also true for many of the chemical parcels. Rates are competitive on the whole. Owners have also an eye on the number of larger ships that are present in the region and that can pick off some of the larger parcels.

Palm oil trades are far from busy, which is another reason why more ships will become open in the area.

Asia export business is providing some benzene to the U.S. Gulf, but mostly in bigger lots to keep the rates down into the $50s/t. There are lots of smaller parcels to Europe, with only the occasional larger lot of cumene, cyclohexane, biodiesel and a parcel of base oils that would normally be going on a contractual ship. Rate are edging downwards on all the export routes, with perhaps the exception of Asia to India-Middle East Gulf, where there are still a wide variety of cargoes on offer.

The Middle East Gulf-India region is disappointingly quiet. Eastbound is certainly slow but westbound has just about sufficient cargo flow to fill the ships of the main players. Regional business is certainly picking up, and also of note has been the influx of Iranian cargoes onto the open marketplace.

Adrian Brown is senior market analyst for chemicals and base oils with SSY Shipbrokers, London. Information about SSY can be found at www.ssyonline.com. Adrian Brown, in the U.K., can be reached at fix@ssychems.com or by phone at +44 1207-507507. In the London office SSYs Jordi Maymi can be reached at fix@ssychems.com or +44 20 7977 7560.